Tuesday 12 August 2014

MOREPEN LABORATORIES MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL STOCK D12M08Y2014

Morepen Laboratories is a 25 year old company. The company's business comprises of Formulations (over 100 branded formulations in 8 major therapeutic segments), API (API's and intermediates for both regulated and non-regulated markets), Diagnostics (blood banking machines, clinical and home health devices) and OTC; some of the OTC brands include Burnol, Lemolate, Sat-isabgol, Head-X, Fever-X and others.   

The company has 3 manufacturing facilities with international standings for API, Formulations and OTC. They are located in the foothills of Himalayas in the state of Himachal pradesh. For more info check, http://www.morepen.com          

PRESENT DAY NUMBERS  
CMP on Day12 Aug2014: Rs 5          Market cap: 205 crores          BV: 4.5            FV: 2           
Revenue FY14: 352 cr (FY12 318 cr)      Net profit(loss): FY14 (2.7 cr) [FY12 (20.5 cr)]
Debt: 85 cr (approx) 

BRIEF HISTORY  
Morepen started in 1985 as a pure API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) business. They then moved up the value chain to complex multi-stage synthesis and further progressed into high value molecules. The company built world class manufacturing facilities and got them approved in accordance with USFDA standards in the year 1999. 

MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL  
1. After continuous Q-o-Q losses, for the first time since 12 quarters the company has made a quarterly net profit of approx 1 crore in Q1 FY15
2. Debts have reduced consistently from high of around 800 crores (in 2006) to less than 100 crore currently.
3. From a low of 115 cr annual revenue in FY 2006; the revenues have steadily increased to 352 cr in FY 2014   

INTERESTING INFO   
1. Morepen facilities/plants are situated in one of the most scenic, beautiful and serene surroundings on the foothills of Himalayas
2. Loratadine has been a major source for the API business. Other contributors are Montelukast, Atorvastatin, Sultamicillin, etc
3. In OTC product catrgory, 'Dr Morepen' is a well established and positioned brand. The range of products are Isabgol, C-Sip, Burnol, Lemolate, etc  

MY TAKE  
Morepen laboratories is a major turn-around story. This company got a fresh lease of life; courtesy CDR in the year 2006. The company was one of the early entrants into the pharma business. Despite having a good business plan, good set of products, early establishment of various brands; the company lost its way some time around the years of 2002-04. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong for them. The situation of the company went from bad to worse to dire.The stock price collapsed from a high of 1200 rs (FV 10) and went downhill for almost a decade to a low of 2 rs (FV 2).     

Then the turnaround started. The company went for a CDR. The Debt Restructuring Scheme was approved by the CDR cell in June 2006. Since the CDR commencement and progress in the year 2007; the company has painstakingly undertaken several steps in the right direction. In a slow and steady journey, the recovery and revival of the company appears to be taking place in a sustained manner. The worst seems to be over. The future looks to be bright and vibrant for the company. It has all the ingredients and traits to make a successful and profitable pharma company.   

Hence a potential multibagger!!      

Disclosure: I own shares in Morepen labs (and will continue to add/accumulate more)

20 comments:

  1. its a good one, pl, can u give u r mail id reg-yoga ,as your words SUPREME SCIENCE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Raja, My email id is; zorbayogi9@gmail.com

      Delete
  2. Dear Zorba,

    I come across the following comments in a blog about Morepen :

    "History of promoters is not too good and also some court cases are there .But if management is ready for a change and find some ways to settle the Fixed Deposit related cases ,still there is scope. All together a very high risk kind opportunity."

    Just sharing it...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Gopal,

      What news u r sharing is not incorrect. How ever it very very old news.

      This company had a very tough and challenging past. During that time they had problem with banks and depositors.

      As far as my recollection goes they have resolved and settled most of the cases (if not all)

      As per my understanding, the past of the company would have no bearing on its present and its future (which is bright)

      Best regards!!

      Delete
    2. Hi Zorba,

      Thanks for your prompt reply. By the way, is GVK power under your radar ?

      Regards

      Delete
  3. Since it has gone 80% up from your recon date is it still buy zorba..n how long should one have to hold to gain 100% from this point..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Sandeep,

      I cannot answer such questions. No body can make these predictions with 100% certainty. Not even the company management.

      From a long term perspective (2 - 3 years); Morepen will do well.

      About profit booking, each person must make their own decisions. If you are happy with the profits and do not believe that the stock has further up side, then u must book profits.

      I never give buy and sell calls. BUY and SELL are independent decisions.

      Best regards!!

      Delete
  4. Sir I want to buy Morepen Laboratories . at what price can I buy ? And what is its 1year target price ?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Neel, Please refer to the response I have provided to Anuj.

      Until the operators are out, it is better to stay away from Morepen labs.

      Cheers!!

      Delete
  5. Sir,

    I have bought morepen shares at Rs 12 and in last week it has been hitting LC. Can you please help us understand is it safe to hold Morepen. It seems some ppl are playing in this stock.

    Anuj

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Anuj,

      Basic rule in stock market is "Buy low and Sell high"

      I bought Morpen at around 4.50 rs and sold around 8 rs. Normally I do not sell so early.

      But when it was quite obvious that operators were involved, I sold it off. It is always better to stay away from operator driven stocks.

      Buying Morepen Labs at 12 rs was a mistake.

      Now it is the middle of a "pump and dump" operation driven by market manipulators. So very difficult to say how low it will go or when it will bounce back.

      Based on that, you need to make decisions that are best for you.

      Good luck!!

      Delete
  6. I want to get out of Morepen but due to continuous LC, I am not able to sell it. I have purchased it at the price of 10.5. I am willing to hold it for 1-2 year. Also could you look at my portfolio and give a suggestion.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AuL00qMaBN0EdFJuaUpzWU9XRXUtR3JPeWx1bmdfOXc&single=true&gid=2&output=html


    Regards.
    Anil Yadav

    ReplyDelete
  7. I purchased 5100 morepen at an average of 4.30.is it good to hold for 4years

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hello sir,i think u remember me from trigyn board..
    I would like to know about the depreciation costs of 45crores annually for the last 5 yrs.
    What is the potential of ramping up its overseas business.what is the margin u believe is sustainable going forward.kindly share ur valuable info..

    ReplyDelete
  9. outstanding blog. sir. now share is at 20rs. due to very good quarter. can you please suggest me whether i can invest now. what will you be your target as per financials.
    Thanks for your response

    ReplyDelete
  10. outstanding blog. sir. now share is at 20rs. due to very good quarter. can you please suggest me whether i can invest now. what will you be your target as per financials.
    Thanks for your response

    ReplyDelete
  11. morepen lab share has bought Rs.38.85. What should this stock

    ReplyDelete
  12. morepen lab share has bought Rs.38.85. What should this stock

    ReplyDelete
  13. Can buy MOREPEN at Rs.24/- for triple digit within a year ..........i think so many news going on with this stock...............

    ReplyDelete