Sunday 28 June 2015

GVK POWER AND INFRA MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL STOCK D25M06Y2015

GVK Power and Infrastructure is one of the foremost infrastructure holding company. Founded by Dr. GVK Reddy, this company owns a wide range of infrastructure assets in Airports, Energy, Transportation and resources. GVK is a key infrastructure player in India, with increasing interests abroad. For more info check, http://www.gvk.com/         

Dr. GVK Reddy, the founder chairman has been conferred with the "Padma Bhushan" award from the Government of India in the category of Trade and industry. He is a first generation industrialist with interests in infrastructure construction, hospitality, biotechnology and petrochemicals. He was also conferred with the "Infrastructure person of the year" for his contribution to the infrastructure of India.   

NUMBERS - THE LATEST  
Market cap: 1240 crores         CMP on Day25 June2015: Rs 8.40         BV: 12 rs.(approx)   
Revenue FY14: 2820 cr           Net profit FY14: (368 cr)loss                 FV: 1         

POSITIVES - MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL   
1. GVK increased its stake in MIAL, Mumbai International Airport, to over 50% by acquiring 13.5% stake from Bid Services Division for USD 231 million. After this transaction MIAL became a subsidiary of GVK Airports which is a subsidiary of GVK Power and infra, the listed company. GVK has concession rights, for its share of revenues and profits for 30 years, with a provision for another 30-year extension.
2. GVK hiked its stake in BIAL, Bangalore International Airport, to over 43% by acquiring 53 million shares from Siemans Project ventures for Rs. 613 crores. Even here the concession rights, is for 30 plus 30 years.
3. The IPO of GVK Airport Developers, which is a 100% subsidiary of listed GVK company, could prove to be a game changer for the company. In all probability, the IPO could well happen before December 2015
4. Consolidated EBITDA for FY2015 stood at Rs. 1143 crores as against Rs. 1005 crores the previous year. This is clear evidence that the company is heading in the right direction.
5. MIAL recorded revenue of Rs. 637 crores for Q4FY2015 as against 544 crores in Q4FY14. EBITDA margin improved to 47% compared to 28% the previous year. Net profit is Rs. 17 crore vs net loss of Rs. 58 crore. BIAL recorded revenue of Rs. 255 crores for Q4FY2015 as against 163 crores in Q4FY14. EBITDA margin improved to 69% compared to 51% the previous year. Net adjusted profit is Rs. 83 crore vs net loss of Rs. 86 crore.   

INTERESTING INFO       
1. In 2014 GVK awarded 1.16 million sq ft of land for rs. 580 crore at the Mumbai international airport for commercial development. This is part of overall commercial development of 22 million sq ft over next 10 years.
2. GVK was awarded the contract to modernize and develop green field international airports in North Bali and Yogyakarta(Java) both in Indonesia.
3. In the hospitality sector, Taj GVK is an alliance between the Taj group and GVK, which has 4 hotels in Hyderabad, and one each in Chennai and Chandigarh.
4. GVK EMRI (Emergency Management and Research Institute) is one of the most important social initiatives of the company. This service is spread across 15 states. With the help of this widespread initiative and equipped with over 9000 ambulances, around 30 million cases have been attended to and over 1 million lives saved      

NEGATIVES - POSSIBLE RISKS      
1. Company has been making losses q-o-q since the last several quarters. From a quarterly loss of 235 crores in Q4FY14 it has come down to 108 crore loss in Q4FY2015. There is a strong possibility that the company could come in green over the next few quarters.
2. Non-availability of gas supply for its 2 gas based power projects. This was bad luck with no fault on the side of the company. As per latest development, AP Transco, have exercised their option to buy out the Phase 1 Jegurupadu gas plant of 217 MW. This should ease out some pain for GVK.
3. With more projects coming into LIVE mode, and an increased revenue stream, and a growth in operational profits, the company is headed in the right direction. A successful IPO of the airports venture and reduced interest rates, could all auger well for the company.

MY TAKE     
GVK is popularly referred to as "GVK Power" in the stock market. It is also often mistakenly assumed as just one of the other private power producers. Though it started out as a private power producing company, over the last 10 years it has become a full fledged infrastructure asset owning company.   

This company currently owns and manages 2 of the busiest airports in the country, 2 gas powered power plants, 3 road projects and few other. Projects under implementation are one 540 MW coal based thermal power plant, two hydro electric power projects cumulatively over 1100 MW, 2 airports in Indonesia, and a coal mine in Australia.     

Today this company is available at a market cap of around 1200 crores  

This is deeply deeply undervalued. As they say, "the best time to buy is when it seems situation is at the worst" (only provided it is a good quality company, and you are very sure about its future prospects based on real facts and evidence)          

The last 3 years have been terrible for the company. Everything that could go wrong went wrong. It did not get the promised gas supplies for its gas power plants, lost one of its coal mines, and a stubborn interest rate scenario with escalating debts.         

It seems like the worst is over. The developments of the last 3 months, and the probability of positive events over the next 3 - 6 months make this an excellent turn around story. The turnaround is surely happening. This is a great time to be accumulating shares of a fantastic future potential company at very cheap valuations.

A strong potential multibagger!!



Disclosure: I own shares in GVK.     

For consultation(commercial) and JV ideas; 
                                                   you can contact me via zorbayogi9@gmail.com       


Important Note: Potential multibaggers are those stock which have potential to give 200 - 1000% profits. Obviously such returns take time. Probably 3 - 4 years or more. Short term volatility is the reality of the stock market and that will always happen. Short term movements(upside and downside) are impossible to predict. Only invest funds that you will not need for the next 3 - 4 years. As long as you buy a stock for the right reason and are convinced about the future prospects of the company, there is no need to worry if the share price goes down and stays down for a period of time after you buy; provided you have followed the cardinal stock market mantra BUY LOW.          

Very important note: The objective of this blog is to share knowledge and info about multibagger ideas/opportunities. Neither is this trading website nor an analyst website nor a Buy/Sell call website. For stock market success, always do your home work, own analysis and make your own decisions.

Sunday 7 June 2015

ULTIMATE MULTIBAGGER STORY INFOSYS D07M06Y2015

Infosys has been one of the most successful and commendable indian business venture of our times. This company needs no introduction. It will very difficult to find some one, who may not have heard of this company, or come across any anecdotes about this stupendous entrepreneurial success.    

Co-founded by seven software professionals in 1981, the company was incorporated as "Infosys consultants Pvt. Ltd." in Pune with rs. 10,000 as its initial capital.  In 1992 it became a public limited company with the name "Infosys Technologies Ltd". Over the next 2 decades this company went on the become the second largest IT services company in India, and one of the top 10 publicly traded company in the India.  

A one-time investment of Rs.1,00,00 by buying 1000 shares of Infosys during its IPO would now be worth approximately 25 crores (Twenty Five crore rupees). That makes it at the least, a 2500-bagger
Mind boggling!!   

Even assuming one lakh rupees was a lot of money in at that time, even an investment of 10,000 rs. which a lot of people could have surely managed, could have transformed into around 2.5 crores now. Yes, that is 2,50,00,000 rupees!!  

HOW INFY BECAME SUCH A STUPENDOUS MULTIBAGGER     
1. Revenues story -> Rs. 512 crores in the year 1999, 9521 CR in 2006 and 50,132 CR in FY2014
2. Net profit story -> Rs. 132 crores in 1999, 2458 CR in 2006 and 10,656 CR in FY20124
3. Dividend story -> Rs. 15 (2001), 12.5 (2002), 14.5 (2003),
                                                  Rs. 115 (2004), 38.5 (2006), 55 (2010), 35 (2011), 47 (2012)
4. Bonus story -> 1994 (1:1), 1997 (1:1), 1999 (1:1), 2004 (3:1), 2006 (1:1), 2014 (1:1)

INTERESTING INFO        
1. Infosys made an IPO offer in February 1993 at a price of rs. 95 per share, that is, a share with FV of rs. 10 and rs. 85 as a premium.
2. The stock got listed on the exchanges in June 1993 and opened at an approx price of rs. 140
3. Infosys IPO was almost a debacle. It was under-subscribed, and hence Morgan Stanley bailed them out, by buying a good portion of equity at offer
4. In the year 1999, the share price of Infosys moved to 8100 rupees making it one of the most expensive share in the market by denomination      

MY TAKE      
Finding a company like Infosys in its early stage, and benefiting from it to the maximum, is very difficult. How ever, with some diligent research of the past years, we will be able to find at least 25 - 50 super multibaggers over the last 2 decades.         
Even though they may not be 2500-bagger like Infy, it is quite enough, even if they are 100-baggers or 200-baggers. One lakh to one crore rupees or two crores, even if it takes 12, 15, 18 years, is not a bad deal at all.
 

Over the next 2 decades, there will be many such opportunities!!
The point is, even if we are successful with one such find, by investing a good amount in it, and forgetting it for 10, 12, 15 years, then you pretty much need not do anything. Even if it takes us 1, 2, 3 years to find that kind of a potential multibagger, it is worth it.       


Disclosure: I do not own shares in Infosys.    

Important note: The objective of this blog is to share knowledge and info about multibagger ideas/opportunities. Neither is this trading website nor an analyst website nor a Buy/Sell call website. For stock market success, always do your home work, own analysis and make your own decisions.  

     
For consultation(commercial) and JV ideas; 
                                                   you can contact me via zorbayogi9@gmail.com