Friday 15 August 2014

AVT NATURAL MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL STOCK D15M08Y2014

AVT Natural Products Ltd. is one of the finest, high quality, profitable, well managed and niche company based in Kerala. This is a 100% EOU. The various businesses of this agri company are Marigold Oleoresins, Spice Oleoresins & essential oils, value added beverages (mainly Decaffeinated tea). They have recently ventured into specific health suppliments (nutraceuticals). For more info check, http://www.avtnatural.com/     

The company belongs to the AV Thomas group which consists of business in diverse areas such as Plantations, Tea, Spices, Rubber, Leather, Food ingredients, biotech, etc. One of the group companies is AVT McCormick, a 50:50 joint venture between AVT and McCormick & Co Inc. of USA.    

PRESENT DAY NUMBERS     
CMP on Day15 Aug2014: Rs 43.25          Market cap: 650 crores          BV: 12          FV: 1           
Revenue FY14: 271 cr (FY13 255 cr)   Net profit FY14: 51 cr (FY13 50 cr)   EPS: 3.35 (FY13: 3.32)
Debt: ZERO      

BRIEF HISTORY   
AVT Natural was formed in 1986. It started with Marigold cultivation on 200 acres of land, and has since gone up to 35,000 acres producing 100,000 metric tonnes of flowers with the support of 30,000 loyal farmers. 

MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL 
1. The company has delivered 3 consecutive years of PAT of 50 CR plus (this during when global conditions have been challenging)
2. The company is a "Zero Debt" company as on 31st March 2014 (they walked the talk of becoming a ZD company as stated in their AR 2 years back)
3. Compounded profit growth has been around 32% over the last 10 years and RoE has been around 35% during the same period
4. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of over 20% over the last 10 years (with the exception of a couple years)
5. For the first time in its history, they clocked a revenue of 90 CR in Q1FY14; it is not far when QR will be 100 cr plus stepping up the threshold
6. The company has diversified into health supplements under the brand name "Optim Health". The launch was done in few select cities just recently.
For more into check, http://www.optimhealth.in/       

INTERESTING INFO
1. AVT Natural featured in the Forbes list of 200 best companies under a billion dollar revenue in the asia pacific region (in the year 2012)
2. The contract farming model followed by AVT is regarded as one of the best. Their endeavor is to ensure "Quality at source"
3. They have been audited and certified for Quality by BUREAU VERITAS in accordance with ISO 9001:2008 
4. AVT has a win-win relationship with the farmers maximizing net returns to the farmers and ensuring quality produce for the company at optimum price.  

MY TAKE  
AVT Natural is already a proven SUPER MULTI BAGGER. From a stock price of 40 paisa in the year 2002 (adjusted for splits and bonuses) to a life time high of 50 rupees in the year 2015; this has multiplied investor wealth by approximately 110 times in a matter of 12 to 13 years.    
Even if we were to split the stock performance into 2 separate time periods; this stock has been a multibagger twice. 40 ps in year 2002 to 8 rs in 2008 (a 20-bagger); and 4 rs in 2009 to 40 rs in 2014 (a 10-bagger).
  

Now the million rupee question is "Will it became a multibagger yet again ?". I do believe it has all the potential and capability to become a multibagger yet again from the 40 - 45 levels. Tremendous strength in the existing product portfolio, uniqueness of the business model, proven management capability, and diversification into new but associated business areas; should ensure that the financial and business performance and growth should continue into the foreseeable future. At a PE of around 12 and PB of around 4 this could still become a wise investment idea.

A strong and robust potential multibagger!!  

Disclosure: I own shares in AVT Natural (and intend to accumulate more on dips)

30 comments:

  1. Hi Zorba - The company fundamentals looks good, But will there be any flipside since they rely on exports and currency fluctuations? Also any idea on their market share on this industry? would like to know that info if possible. Thank You for your inputs

    ReplyDelete
  2. Followed your blogs, not invested yet :)
    Find your advice sound and realistic.
    Maybe you can convince me to be an active investor in the stock market.
    It will help if you can suggest a list of few more stock for evaluation
    Thank you Sir!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Savio, As u r new to the stock market, here are some guideline which could be very useful;

      1. Buy Low Sell High - As long as u follow this simple strategy, u can make money/profits every single time
      2. Patience is very important. Keep at least a time horizon of 2 - 3 years when you buy a stock (how ever at times u may sell ur stock much earlier than planned as long as it has given u adequate / decent profits
      3. Do not panic at short term movements (never sell at a loss)
      4. Learn as much as possible about the company u r investing (and always learn to make your own decisions). Home work always helps!!

      All the very best to you. Cheers!!

      Delete
    2. Savio, Top few stocks in my basket are Datamatics global, Themis medicare, Texmo pipes, Veer energy, Morepen labs, etc

      As a first step you can check out their websites, their scope, future potential and related info. Do some home work and buy the stocks about which you are convinced.

      Best regards!!

      Delete
  3. Sir ''dion global'' all financial data source provider to ''Moneycontrol.com''

    Cmp bse- 82.65rs
    Cmp nse-4.05rs can u take a glimpse over it...???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Paramjeet,

      Take a look at Dion's quarterly revenues over the last 10 quarters. It is pathetic. Very poor. Is there any reason that you believe because of which, it will dramatically change?? I would never touch such a company.

      My No.1 stock pick in the IT/software space is Datamatics.

      Compare the quarterly results of Datamatics with Dion. It will become quite obvious to you.

      Best regards!!

      Delete
  4. Sir can u give ur views on transgene biotech.can it be like morepen?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rashmi,

      Here are 3 quarterly revenues of Transgene bio

      June 12 = 5.4 crore
      June 13 = 24 lakhs
      June 14 = 11 lakhs

      A detailed study, research and analysis needs to be done if there is a turn around possible for this company. With the high level info that I can see, the answer is a BIG NO.

      If you are keen on pharma, Themis Medicare is a fantastic option with a time horizon of 2 - 3 years.

      Best regards!!

      Delete
    2. Thnx yogiji i exited it at 5.2yestrday after 50%profits.better to be cautios.

      Delete
    3. Rashmi ji, good thing you did. No point in investing in stocks with weak fundamentals.

      Pharma as a sector has huge potential will continue to do very well over the next 2 - 4 - 6 years.

      My top 3 in pharma are Morepen labs, Themis medicare and Nectar life. I have invested in all 3 and continue to accumulate on dips.

      Best regards!!

      Delete
  5. Thnks.i am already invested in morepen from 3.2levels.aftr ur recom i decided to hold fr long term.i will look into.themis and nectar.thnx a lot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rashmi, Huge amount of profit booking (along with some operator activity) could take Morepen lower in the short term.

      You are already sitting with 100% profit. Selling half your quantity and moving into Datamatics could be a smart strategy.

      Selling may be possible today with some difficulty (or tomorrow immediately when the market opens). Good luck!!

      Delete
  6. Annual General Meeting at Chennai on July 25, 2014. The meet was preside over by Ajit Thomas, Chairman of the company.Key takeaways of the meet by Capital Mkt;

    Expiry of Lutein patent of strategic partner Kemin has increased the competition and prices have come down significantly eroding margins in the supply chain. Given its supply dependability both in-terms of time and quality, the company along with its partner Kemin is working on retaining and growing market share. In this regard the company is trying to contain costs especially the fixed cost.

    Zeaxanthin though received well in the market that will not totally compensate the loss in revenue and profits at Lutein. The market demand for Zeaxanthin and Lutein is in the ratio of 5:1.

    Lutein prices have come down to about USD 1/kg compared to a peak of USD 3 during good time two year ago. The price may range about USD 0.75-1 unless there is a crop failure in China and resultant push up in prices.

    Feed grade marigold oleoresins prices came down to levels of 10 cents now. And the prices of it also depends on Chinese crop.

    Given difficult times in marigold oleoresins the company has invested in future growth areas i.e., Spice Oleoresins, Instant/Decaff Tea and Health supplements. The new stream accounts for about 35% of the revenue of the company in FY14.

    Instant Tea – The company has invested Rs 13.5 crore for a state of the art instant Tea plant with a capacity of 700 tonnes per annum in the Cochin Extraction plant. The company is in the process of overcoming the initial learning curve of ‘Instant Tea' production and marketing. With strong technical and marketing team at London based AVT Tea Services, the company expects to have a significant Instant Tea business by March 2016. Recently, the company has also recruited a sales manager in USA with relevant industry experience in Instant Tea vertical for handling America's Sales Zone. The company expects to clock a sales volume of 400 tonnes in FY15.

    Decaff Tea – The company has expanded the Decaff Tea capacity at Cochin to 7000 MT. The company expects the capacity utilization to improve and expects a volume of about 4000 MT in FY15 compared to about 2000 MT in FY14. In next 3 years the company is looking at a capacity utilization of 80% and sales volume of 6000 MT by FY17.

    The company is increasing the distribution of health supplements and the product is now marketed in 6 cities and just has been launched in Delhi and Chennai. The distribution is primarily through chemist network and select modern trade channel.

    The instant tea and Decaff Tea will bring in revenue of about Rs 45-50 crore in FY15.

    The next two years are going to be tough. The margin will be under pressure due to change in revenue mix as well as lower realization in food grade marigold oleoresins. The company though feels it is too early to speak about the operating margin, it is hope full of sustaining or marginally improving the Q1FY15 margin levels for rest of the period. Parts of China is faced with floods and some other parts drought and the estimated damage to marigold crop is not yet known. If there is huge damage to marigold crop in China there will be positive impact as far as marigold oleoresin prices going forward auguring well for the company.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wonderful, Pranab.

      Good thing you pasted this.

      Just goes to re-affirm what a wonderful company AVT Natural is.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
  7. What companies are you working on right. You work seems outstanding.

    Im a recent graduate, no job yet. I have enough time to research stock at the moment.

    Ive been working on Prithvi Softech today, seems very strong on it. Will have to do more research. Could you assist me with your view on Prithvi Softech.

    Also whats you on ptc financials services ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Pranab,

      Top stocks in my basket are: Datamatics, Themis, Firstsource and Texmo.

      Others are: AVT natural, Morepen, Asahi songwon, Nectar life, etc

      Write me an email with an intro to urself: zorbayogi9@gmail.com

      We can then exchange numbers and have a chat.
      I will be happy to share my thoughts, ideas, knowledge and views.

      Cheers!!

      Delete
  8. Hii MY can i sen mt pf to you so that i can get sound advice from you and get multifold returns?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure, Rashmi

      I will definitely help u where possible.

      Write an email with a small intro to: zorbayogi9@gmail.com

      We can then take it further from there.

      Best regards!!

      Delete
  9. Zorba,

    Is Freshtrop Fruits under your radar ?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks dude! i got raped on this stock.

    ReplyDelete
  11. should i exit or hold ? huge loss. plz suggest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Neel,

      Stock market investment is not T-20 cricket; it is test cricket.
      It needs persistence, resilience, patience, conviction and mental strength.

      When ever you make an investment, the time horizon should be 2 - 3 years.
      And you will only make a loss if you "sell ur stock at a low price"

      Don't even think of selling. Have a strong heart and give this time.
      One-Two years from now, AVTN will be much much higher.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
  12. Thanks a lot sir :) I do agree wit u : ) but was shocked wit ppl selling it . . and I feel avt south east Asia , a subsidiary company creating loses in past years ,the closing of this will increase the profit in future . and its gud they have started a subsidiary in USA , a tea division.
    I would also like to hear your views on it :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Neel,

      To be a successful investor, you have to always use your own brains (every single time). And you should not panic.

      Let other people do what they want. Just because a crowd does something, does not mean it is right.

      Cheers!!

      Delete
  13. Sir ,

    I am a new entrant to the market.could you please suggest me 4 storcks to invest . shall i consider EDELWEISS,Texm Pipes,Themis Medicars, Ybrant Digital . please comment \

    regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Madhu,

      My top 4 (from a 2 year time frame) would be Firstsource, Edelweiss, Texmo and Datamatics. All of them have potential (at least to double)

      Remember that, markets have gone up non-stop for 1 year. So going forward there will be sharp corrections and increased fluctuation. You have to be prepared to accept those corrections (and not panic and sell) and probably add more when price falls.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
  14. Thanks a lot sir :) I wish to become a value investor like you :) I am just 19 and a beginner :) plz guide us all and help us also learn :) thank you sir :)
    And i am planning to buy the above mentioned 4stocks :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Neel, my friend.

      Good that you made the decision to make stock market investments. One of the best decisions you have made in ur life.

      If you focus on your strategy, implement it with discipline and not make too many mistakes, then one day u will become a "rich neel"

      All the best!!

      Delete
  15. Thank you sir :) hopefully I do become rich :) just love the way you motivate and help people :)in future even I want help people like you do :)

    ReplyDelete