Tuesday 13 February 2018

Gammon infra POTENTIAL MULTIBAGGER STOCK D12M02Y2018

Gammon infrastructure projects is a pan-India infrastructure development company with a diverse portfolio of assets across ports, road and power. The company has technical and operational experience of around two decades in the infrastructure sector. 
For more info check, http://www.gammoninfra.com/   

NUMBERS - THE LATEST 
Market cap: 315 crores              CMP on Day12 Feb2018: Rs 3.30                     BV: 6.9
Revenue 1HFY18: 57 cr (standalone)      Net profit 1HFY18: 3.8 cr approx      FV: 2 

POSITIVES 
1. After several years of extremely challenging situation, the company has won a new project. There are sufficient indications that the worst is over for the company.
2. Gammon infra divested its stake in 6 projects to Brookfield, and pared down signifiant part of its debt with a 70% reduction in its interest flow.
3. There has also been a financial and organizational re-structuring of the group with a change in the  ownership of the company
4. On the balance sheet of HYFY2018 investments in subsidiaries is worth 1287 crores and long term borrowings is around 30 crores. 

INTERESTING INFO
1. RGBL (Rajahmundry Godaveri Bridge Limited) is one of the operational assets of the company. The project cost is 1071 crores.
2. ICTPL (Indira container terminal private limited) is the flagship project of the ports division. Here the project cost is 1233 crores. During the year, ICTPL achieved a record handling of 6312 vehicles in a single vessel.
3. In VSPL (Vizag Seaport private limited) the company handled 63,24,345 tonnes of cargo in FY2017. Company made a PAT of around 4.5 crores here.
4. Gammon infra shares made a life time low at 2.66 in Oct 2017.

NEGATIVES - POSSIBLE RISKS   
1. Loss making projects are a cause for concern (because of which share price has been battered)
2. Overall infra space has been out of favour since the last few years which had a direct effect on the share price of the company.         

MY TAKE 
Gammon infra is a penny stock. The last 5 years have been extremely challenging for the company almost on the brink of questioning its potential to survive. The management has taken several steps to streamline the company and position it for future growth. Infrastructure is an area of focus for the Modi government, with a massive spending outlay. Gammon is well positioned to bag some projects. Recent win is evidence of that. 

The cumulative project cost of the company's infrastructure assets is around 7500 crores. Most of these are monoply projects, with revenue concession periods of around 30 years. The market cap of the company is 300 crores. So for an astute and patient investor, the opportunity is obvious. To make the most of this, it requires tremendous conviction and huge patience.  

Gammon infra is a potential multibagger!!      


Disclosure: I own shares in Gammon infra.       


For commercial collaboration, consultation and JV ideas;
                                                   you can contact me via zorbayogi9@gmail.com


Important Note: Potential multibaggers are those stocks which have potential to give 100 - 500% profits. Obviously such returns take time. Probably 3 - 4 years or more. Short term volatility is the reality of the stock market and that will always happen. Short term movements(upside and downside) are impossible to predict. 

Only invest funds that you will not need for the next 3 - 4 years. As long as you buy a stock for the right reason and are convinced about the future prospects of the company, there is no need to worry if the share price goes down and stays down for a period of time after you buy; provided you have followed the cardinal stock market mantra BUY LOW.     

Very important note: The objective of this blog is to share knowledge and info about multibagger ideas/opportunities. Neither is this trading website nor an analyst website nor a Buy/Sell call website. For stock market success, always do your home work, own analysis and make your own decisions.


62 comments:

  1. What a Hero You Are!!!!!!!!
    I Mean where do you get this simple but smart analysing skills. After Spotting GVK around 5 Odd Levels this is another masterpiece from you. Hatts off Yogi. I dont Have any Words.

    Comming Back to Gammon,
    I think Gammon is a once in a lifetime opportunity at 3.30 Rs Now, I Mean with all the detials provided by you is there anything by which we can say we can loose from here????
    For Me Gammon is a Big Picture Investment. This company will survive that is pakka. Now with recent 587Cr Order they have prooved themselves that it will sail and rise like phoenix in future. If you see Todays GVK Results it is Turning the tide with 10Cr Plus profits on standalone basis.

    Looking at 7L Cr Bharatmala and Sagarmala Projects (Big Picture Investing) as this company has specialisation of port as well as road infrastructure. Even if they Get 1% of the Orders then they can do a Revenue of 7000Cr , With Decent 7-8% Marginsthey can do a profit of 490-560Crores in Next 5 Years. On Reasonable vlauations also this company can trade at a Mcap of 5000 Cr which seems like it can become 16 Bagger from Here in 5 Yrs time.

    I am an optimist!! Correct me if i am wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks, Suyog.

    Nice to see your nice words :-)

    Agreed GVK was a fantastic pick. But in between I lost conviction and could hardly make any money in that.

    Here in Gammon I do intend (and hope) not to repeat the mistake.

    In the near / mid term we could see Gammon surpassing a market cap of 1000 crore which could make it a 3 - 4 bagger.

    Long term, definitely it could be much much higher. Imagining a market cap of 5000 crore from a 4 - 8 year time horizon is not unrealistic :-)

    Today as you say, it may sound optimistic.
    But few years down the line, when the financials of the company get changed dramatically, it will actually look realistic.

    All the best with your Gammon journey!

    Enjoy! Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear sir
    One of ur old reco gitanjali recomended in oct 16 has involved a major fraud which u also aware can u pls share ur views on the future of the company i am holding 1000 shares at an avg prixe of 84

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Amudhan,

      Whenever promoters or management of a company (let it be any company) are involved in a major fraud, the first thing to do is to sell all the shares IMMEDIATELY.

      You should have sold all your Gitanjali shares yesterday. There is no bottom for such cases. So get out as soon as you can.

      In case it is already too late, wait patiently for a bounce back and sell whenever you get the opportunity.

      Good luck!

      Delete
  4. Dear sir Share your views on pincon life style

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dear sir Share your views on pincon life style

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Subrahmanyam,

      No idea about Pincon lifestyle.

      Delete
  6. Your advice on ruchi soya industries. company has planned to reduce the debt and sell stake to patanjali and lot of market analyst in 2020 the has good return and given a target of 250/- is it buy at cmp

    Thanks

    Amudhan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No idea about Ruchi Soya, Amudhan.

      But most Soya and edible oil companies have been great wealth destroyers. I prefer to stay away from them.

      Good day!

      Delete
  7. Sir, What's the total Debt on Gammon at present.Promotor holding is almost 100 % pledge is this a matter of concern pls giude and how much % of our portfolio is suggested to invest in this particuar stock thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Manju,

      Last year when Gammon infra sold their assets, they cleared a significant portion of their debts. At a standalone level, their debt is negligible.

      Promoter pledging could be a cause for concern. But in this case, you need to decide whether you want to take that risk. As the stock is at life time lows, for me it is ok.

      How much you want to invest in this stock?
      That is completely a individual decision.

      Wish you good profits here.

      Delete
  8. Sir ,I both SPECTRA IND.
    @37 r.s.
    2000 stock, please suggest me, hold or book loos,
    I am long term invetar.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Taher,

      No idea about Spectra ind.
      Never heard of that name before.

      All the best.

      Delete
  9. Hi sir.. Gammon infra is sliding very seriously... what could be the reason sir.? Any bad news ..pls enlight . Thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gammon infra is real multibagger for 2018

      Delete
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    ICICI Bank acquired 18% stake in Gammon infra through invocation of pledged shares.
    Is it good or bad news for Gammon infra??

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  27. Sir what about gammon infra now, it's recover from the life time lowest or not? Please suggest me

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  34. Any update on Gammon Infra going down. Any update on peofits or financial statements?

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  41. Hi Yogi,
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    Is this a good call..??


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  50. Gammon has the potential to become multibagger stock as it has got lot of big orders recently

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