Friday 28 February 2014

FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTIONS MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL STOCK D28M02Y2014

Firstsource Solutions is a leading BPO company. Its focus areas are healthcare, telecommunications, Media, Banking and financial services. The company has over 100 clients, across various geographies. These include 21 Fortune500 and 9 FTSE100 companies. For more info check, http://www.firstsource.com

PRESENT DAY NUMBERS
CMP on Day28 Feb2014: Rs 28.25            Market cap: 1822 crores              BV: 26            FV: 10
Consol revenue FY13: 2818 cr (FY12 2255 cr)                   Net profit: 146 cr (FY12 62 cr)                                                                                                                   EPS: 2.82 (FY12: 1.44)
Cons revenue 9MFY14: 2320 cr            NP 9MFY14: 143 cr                       EPS: 2.04 (9MFY14)
Debt: 756 cr (long term)                      Cash on books: 149 cr

BRIEF HISTORY
Originally established in 2001 as 'ICICI infotech' by ICICI bank. Change of name to 'ICICI Onesource' in 2002. Name changed again, to 'Firstsource solutions Ltd' in 2006. Listed on indian stock exchange in the year 2007.

MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL

Company on a growth track:
1. Consistent growth in revenues during last 8 quarters, despite a subdued global environment.
                    Cons revenue Q3 FY2014: 799 cr [Q3 FY2013: 719 cr, Q3 FY2012: 581 cr]   
2. Consistent improvement in business performance over last 8 quarters, thereby improving profitability.
                    Net profit Q3 FY2014: 48 cr [Q3 FY2013: 41 cr, Q3 FY2012: 7 cr]
Inflection points:
1. Rajesh Subramaniam re-joins the company as deputy MD and CFO in July 2011, and is further elevated to MD and CEO in April 2012
2. Sanjeev Goenka acquires 49.5% in Firstsource, and becomes its new owner in October 2012; and as part of the deal structuring, the company pays off the FCCB bond holders.

INTERESTING INFO
1. In his earlier stint, Rajesh Subramaniam had been the CFO of Firstsource from November 2002 to June 2008.
2. Ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, buys 2.5 cr shares(around 5%) in Firstsource, in July 2013.

MY TAKE
Though Firstsource is technically a midcap stock (<1850 cr market cap); the reality is a little different. It is a large company that employs around 30,000 people, operates 47 delivery locations across 5 countries(India, US, UK, Philippines and Sri Lanka), manages approx 90% repeat business from existing clients , with annual revenues of over 3000 cr. Ideal combination of an astute promoter and an experienced and competent management team. This belongs to the Buffett philosophy category of "Great business at a reasonable price".
 
A robust potential multibagger!!

Disclosure: Firstsource solutions is part of my core holdings (and I intend to add more)
    


29 comments:

  1. Stock: Firstsource solutions
    Specific response to query by JM on Indiabulls power page

    With a time horizon of 2 - 5 years; let us visualize Firstsource solutions will reach a price of approx 150 (or 250)

    Caution: This is only for illustration (as I never give targets)

    So it does not really matter that much if you buy at 35 or 40 or 45 (from a profitability perspective)

    How ever it is wiser to buy in multiple chunks with few weeks gap (as you can benefit from corrections; if any)

    Best Regards!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Response to Abhi's question on the Indiabulls power page:

    My view: Take solutions vs Firstsource solutions.

    Dear Abhi; Comparing Take with Firstsource is like comparing Cambodia with China. Take solutions is a small sized IT (software) company which has been struggling since the last 2 - 4 years. There is no visibility that the struggle is over and good times are on the horizon. The stock has been range bound since the last 4 - 5 years and I have no reason to believe that will change any time soon.

    Firstsource is one of the largest (if not the largest) BPO company originating out of India. A new promoter; invigorated top management; steady business growth; regular re-payments of foreign subsidiary debts (accrued out of company's own quarterly cash flows); all this augers very well for the company. In the next 3 - 5 years; this company has all the potential to become one of the Top 10 BPO companies in the world. A fantastic high potential investment. Best regards!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. To add;

    From the lows of 6 - 8 rs (last year); this stock is already a 4 - bagger.

    How ever I am of the strong belief; that the journey has just begun. Even trying to hazard a guess to the up side potential of this stock could be foolish.

    Even from the levels of 35 - 40; Firstsource could still easily become a 4 to 5 - bagger. I will not be surprised even if this becomes a 8 - 10 bagger.

    Best regards!!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Best stock fitstsource solution my life my age 45 so good company turnaround MULTIBAGGER stock buy today new invester. Ipo price 65 tha so target easy 70 seventy so buy buy buy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lalit saab, Great to see your conviction in Firstsource solutions.

      It is an excellent quality company with a great potential for the future.

      Your target of 70 rs is a very easy target.

      If people/investors can have patience and hold this stock for 1 - 2 years (minimum) it will go much much higher.

      Very difficult to put an upper limit. But I will not be surprised to see Firstsource move towards 80, 120, 150, 160, 180 .....

      Time horizon: 1 - 2 years.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
    2. Just to add, Sir, I am not going sell a single share until it reaches 3 digits at least (minimum)

      My average holding price is approx 24 - 25 levels.

      Cheers!!

      Delete
  5. Zorba yogi
    Mai gujarat jamnagar me rahata hu.
    Thank you for minimum target 3 digit then sell

    ReplyDelete
  6. 30 september loan pay so good news ke bad price badhegi

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Q3 Calendar year 2014 loan repayment could be good news for Firstsource.

      Along with that, the Q2 FY2015 results is also expected to be good. The margins could improve significantly.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
  7. Friend consolidation 37 to 42 last four months ... Today share holding pattern bse me anaunce hua hai public holding down ho raha hai aur Fii up holding hua hai eska good sign hai good news hai...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Multibagger yogiji & all friends HAPPY NEW YEAR WISH NEXT DIPAVALI FSL CROSS TRIPAL DIGIT 100 FOR LONG TERM INVESTER

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, Sir.

      Wish you the same.

      The only thing needed for FS investors is PATIENCE.

      Have a great 2014-15. Cheers!!

      Delete
  9. 33 correction for buy opportunity friends jisne nahi lia vo buy kar sakte hai

    ReplyDelete
  10. World best bpo 2014 in 12 nomber aaya jo aap ne kaha tha ki 10 nomber banege jo sahi nikla ..congratulation

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sir..Please share your views on FSL since it is going down. We are in no hurry.Just want your advice.Should we stay or switch to some other stocks as recommended by you.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Result Declared today . net profit 28 v/s 46 last quarter.

    ReplyDelete
  13. 193 cr net profit last year and this year net profit 234 cr. must buy on dips for long term perspective

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent results. The company is on the right track.

      The only thing needed for investors is PATIENCE.

      Cheers!!

      Delete
  14. Hi Sir,

    Is the story of fsl is still intact..Can I accumulate at current levels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely intact!

      This stock will be much much higher in 2017.

      Delete
  15. Fsl rerating hoga ab 70 ya kabhi bhi 100 ho sakta hai. Ab 50 cross karege patient will good return

    ReplyDelete
  16. GT stocks sir...I bought it around 43 and will keep tight ....not even bother about its day by day movement but I know one day it may take 1 or 2 ,3 years but will give me fantastic return Thanks for your Recommendations ....

    ReplyDelete
  17. Good morning longterm investor firstsource solution above 45 good buy hold tight and buy subex price 11 to 15 accumulation kijie.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Sir fsl crossed 55 ab crossed 100 next short to medium term

    ReplyDelete