Sunday, 2 February 2014

TRIGYN TECH MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL STOCK D02M02Y2014


Trigyn Technologies is a 1000 people IT company with offices in USA (Washington DC, New Jersey, Massachusetts), Germany and Switzerland. Development centers in Mumbai and Bangalore. Focused on IT Staffing, Solutions, Systems Integration, Software Development and Maintenance, and other services. For more info check, http://www.trigyn.com

PRESENT DAY NUMBERS
CMP on Day2 Feb2014: Rs 22.55             Market cap: 66 crores             BV: 34                FV: 10
Cons revenue FY13: 351 cr (FY12 279 cr)       Net profit FY13: 15 cr (FY12 10 cr)         EPS: 5.33
Cons revenue H1FY14: 215 cr                        NP H1FY14: 15 cr                      EPS H1FY14: 5.2
Debt: Zero                                              Cash on books: 7.5 cr

BRIEF HISTORY
Originally incorporated in 1986 as "Leading Edge Systems Ltd". IPO in year 1995 at Rs 50 per share. Bonus issue of 1:1 in year 1998. Name changed to "Trigyn Technologies Ltd" in year 2000.

MULTIBAGGER POTENTIAL
Approx P/E: 2.5
Approx Cons revenue FY14: 400 cr              Approx NP FY14: 30 cr               Approx EPS: 10

Company on a growth track:
1. Consistent business performance (check company website for assignments bagged in 2013)
2. Consistent growth in financials for last 20 quarters
                        (FY08 cons revenues 119 cr, NP 7 cr; FY13 cons revenues 348 cr, NP 15 cr)
3. Achieves 150% increase in net profit on consolidated basis for Q ended June 30, year 2013
4. Recruiting technical staff aggressively in 2013 and 2014 (check the various job sites)

Inflection (turning) points:
1. Mr Homiyar Panday designated as President of US operations in May 2003
2. United Telecoms acquires the company in July 2006
3. Mr R Ganapathi appointed as Chairman and Executive director in April 2012
4. Extension of UN contract in August 2013

INTERESTING INFO
1. Some time in the year 2000, the share price of Trigyn was Rs.3000
2. Stock price of the company 6.50 in APR2013 and 26 in JAN2014
                        (already a multibagger(4-bagger) stock for people who bought in April 2013)

MY TAKE
Trigyn is a turnaround story on a stable footing. Experienced promoters, competent management, consistent performance and steady growth. Mostly ignored, deeply undervalued,  under researched company with robust fundamentals. US and Europe recovery, weak currency, IT sector bullishness are positives for the company. A strong potential multibagger. 


Disclosure: Trigyn tech is part of my core holdings (and I intend to add more)


21 comments:

  1. I do not see anything negative other then election pulling market down until April, mean keep accumulating!

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  2. Good Q3 results. Trigyn is rocking. UC today. Cheers!!

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  3. Trigyn is at a 52-week high today. @27.15
    Incidentally, it is also the 3 year high...

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  4. Response to Kamal's question in the Marksans thread:
    (By the way whats ur target for Trigyn in next 2-3 years)

    It is quite unfair and very difficult to predict the price targets of potential multibagger stocks. Depends on how cheap (under valued) the stock is; and how well the company will do in the mid term and long term.

    Holding on to a potential multibagger stock with conviction for a long period of time is extremely challenging. So it is important to keep monitoring the progress of the company (not the stock). If the company does well and has bright future prospects, the stock will follow.

    I personally do not believe in giving price targets.
    How ever let me share my thoughts and thinking pattern.

    Trigyn has been doing consistently well since the last 20 quarters both on topline and bottomline. Their order book in the medium term appears pretty robust (take a look at the number of people they are hiring). Google Trigyn jobs.

    Now a company with annual revenues of 450 cr and NP of 45 cr, No debt, Strong promoter. Good prospects. This should trade easily at a market cap of 400 - 500 cr on a conservative basis. Probably a PE of 12 (as it is a small cap and has associated risks). Current market cap is 90 cr and PE around 3.

    Which ever way you look, there is a strong upside potential.

    Hope this helps!! Best regards!!

    If you have questions specific to Trigyn, please ask in this thread. It will help other investors as well. Cheers!!

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  5. Can I invest at the current price. I want to invest for 1 years.

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    Replies
    1. Dear Anil,

      Trigyn has moved up very sharply in the last few weeks. Almost doubled. It could probably go higher. Next quarterly results could be very important.

      At this point in time, I would prefer Datamatics Global in the small cap IT space compared to Trigyn.

      All the best!!

      Delete
  6. Replies
    1. I also want to add some stocks like tanla and HFCL

      Delete
    2. Imteyaz ji, My focus is always only on good quality stocks. I only buy good quality stocks (when I am 100% convinced).

      Even if there is a 10% doubt about the quality of the companies, then I do not buy. And I do not believe that Tanla and HFCL are good quality companies.

      My top 4 would be Datamatics, Texmo, Themis and Firstsource

      Best Regards!!


      Delete
  7. Hello Sir,

    Trigyn moving into EPC biz ???
    Ur valuable take pls ?

    Regards

    HK

    ReplyDelete
  8. Sir Trigyn has 50% from peak ..but fundamentals now also very good...any changes in your view after the fall

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Senthil,

      Multibagger investment is like a journey. A potential multibagger stock could take 3 - 4 years(sometimes more) to maximize its profits. Patience is very important for making multibagging(100 - 500%) gains. From the time you make(buy) an investment, to the time you exit(sell) your investment, the stock will go up and go down and sometimes remain flat. That is the reality of the stock market.

      My objective here is to share knowledge and info about potential multibaggers that I come across, as that is my focus area. How ever I will not be able to give reasons most of the times as to why some stock is going down or up. Also, I do not give targets.

      Hope you now understand better, how multibagging investment works.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
  9. Sir,
    I want to know If trigyn is still a hold. In case it drops, can it be added?

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My friend,

      The objective of my blog is not to give buy/sell/hold calls.

      When I wrote about Trigyn, it was my assessment, that it is a potential multibagger. How ever currently I am not actively tracking it.

      Whether to buy more, that is a decision you have to make.

      If you want me to give you Buy/Sell calls, you have to become my client.

      Best Regards!!

      Delete
  10. Dear Mahesh ji,

    Good to see your positive and encouraging words.

    I truly appreciate it and feel happy :-)

    Wish you the best wishes in your endeavor.

    Be in touch

    Kind Regards!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. hi zorba,
    i have been invested in trigyn since october 2010...and hold a substantial quantity...i have done a comprehensive study of the numbers of the past ten years...
    why do you think that the stock languishes at a PE of 4-5 on consolidated numbers basis?
    can it REALLY be that the market has not discovered the company?...are'nt indian IT companies well-tracked?
    don't you think the DIVIDEND policy is very very poor?
    so, a word on the promoters thinking from you?

    iqbal ujjainwalla

    ReplyDelete
  13. hi iqbal,

    I can understand your conundrum.

    Listed indian IT sector comprises of over 200 companies. Apart from the top 25 - 30; the rest are either under-researched or "out of favor".

    Trigyn stock had reached dizzying heights in the past and then had a massive collapse. The company took over a decade for a painful turn around.

    The company is such is a generic IT services company. They do not have a niche nor a specialty. Such companies have very low profit margin.

    Having said that people who buy such stocks at very very low prices surely make good profit over a period of time. How ever people who pay high price; they only have themselves to blame.

    No company is worth paying a high price.
    As long as you stock to the time tested principle of BUY LOW SELL HIGH, you should be okay.

    Best Regards!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi zorba,
    your points are very valid. While i completely concur and agree that when a rupee is vought for 10p, the value proposition itself implies that you have a multi bagger. I also realise that trigyn a "body shop" business and as such has nothing special about it.

    However, What i wanted to know is, that if the company has done so well in the past, then why has the dividend started now, and that too a paltry 50p. I wanted more of your "opinion" along these lines. I also understand that youll be crystal ball gazing because these are questions which are not answered by looking at the numbers. All im trying to do is gauge the intent of the promoters.

    Also, why is the company not being valued on consolidated results? do you think that a PE of 4-5 is justified for a company with such a great track record, and with an almost sure shot order book comprising of orders from an institution such as the UN?

    Iqbal Ujjainwalla

    ReplyDelete